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At Least 80 Electoral Votes Depended on Youth

Assuming that Florida is called for President Obama in 2012, then Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida will be states in which young voters were essential to the President’s reelection coalition. In those states, if Governor Romney had won half of the youth vote, or if young voters had stayed home entirely, then Romney would have won instead of Obama. Those states represent 80 electoral votes, sufficient to have made Romney the next president.

In 2008, the youth vote made the difference for Barack Obama in Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia– meaning that if you subtracted all the under-30 votes, the states would have flipped from Blue to Red.

50 Responses to “At Least 80 Electoral Votes Depended on Youth”

  1. the surprising youth vote « Peter Levine Says:

    [...] ready to talk about why youth turnout was strong and young people supported the President. In fact, we have demonstrated that the youth vote was essential to Obama’s [...]

  2. The youths dig in for Hopenchange 2.0 « Hot Air Says:

    [...] with young voters proving the decisive difference in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to an analysis by the Center for Research and Information on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University. [...]

  3. Leslie Lenkowsky Says:

    Four years ago, President Obama won a surprising victory in Indiana, partly by winning big in the counties in which state universities are located. Nothing like that this year. In Monroe County (IU), the President won 55.7% of the vote (vs. 66% in 2008). In St. Joseph (Notre Dame),he had 51% (vs. 58% in 2004). And in Tippecanoe (Purdue), he lost to Governor Romney, and took just 47% of the vote (vs. 55% in 2004).

    Yes, people of all ages live in these counties and we don’t know what proportion of the youth vote turned out. And the Obama campaign did not really contest Indiana this go-round (though whether that was cause or effect of softening support among young people) is unknown. But the President’s weakness in these three, “youthful” Indiana counties stands in stark contrast to his record there four years ago.

  4. Youth Vote Instrumental in Obama Victory | HackCollege Says:

    [...] on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), which studies the voting habits of young people, in the four critical battle ground states that tipped the election in Obama’s favor, young voters supported the president by at least [...]

  5. How the Youth Vote Changed Last Night’s Election | The Explorer Says:

    [...] The votes of approximately 22-23 million 18- to 29-year-olds were responsible for winning at least 80 electoral votes, according to an analysis by the Center for Research and Information on Civic Learning and Engagement… [...]

  6. Study: Youth vote was decisive | News from around the world Says:

    [...] with young voters proving the decisive difference in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to an analysis by the Center for Research and Information on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University. [...]

  7. Vicky Kramer Says:

    The youth of today are being taught by a very liberal education system from pre-K-College. Conservative values are being thrown out the door. Conservatives need to do a better job at reaching out to our youth. We are becoming a solcialist nation with everyone wanting the government to take care of them.

  8. Had youth stayed home, Romney would have won election 2012 | Education QA Says:

    [...] Had Romney snatched up those states, the switch in his favor of those 80 electoral votes would have also changed the presidency (More on that analysis here.) [...]

  9. Had youth stayed home, Romney would have won election 2012 | Home Learning Advice Says:

    [...] Had Romney snatched adult those states, a switch in his preference of those 80 electoral votes would have also altered a presidency (More on that research here.) [...]

  10. What the Election Means | digitalliteracynh.org Says:

    [...] are a few interesting facts about the electorate that turned out on Tuesday. According to The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), young voters made the difference in at least four of the battleground states, and [...]

  11. Had youth stayed home, Romney would have won election 2012 | Distance Learning Review Says:

    [...] Had Romney snatched adult those states, a switch in his preference of those 80 electoral votes would have also altered a presidency (More on that research here.) [...]

  12. Young voter turnout increases from 2008 to 2012 Says:

    [...] people represented at least 80 electoral votes in the 2012 elections, according to analysis done by The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement [...]

  13. Youth Votes Determines 80 Electoral Votes | Mason Votes Says:

    [...] shows that voting maters and even small numbers can and do make the difference.  See the full post here on their website. CIRCLE exiting polling results of 2012 youth [...]

  14. » How Young Voters Impacted the 2012 Election How they can do MORE Sarah Burris Says:

    [...] Via RH Reality Check: This week, young people proved once again that they are a powerful force for political change. For example, 18- to 30-year-olds made up the largest margin of support for President Barack Obama in four key swing states, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, according to data from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Engagement (CIRCLE). [...]

  15. November 8, 2012 War On Workers News Says:

    [...] on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) suggests that eighty of Obama’s electoral votes depended on the support of young voters. If Romney had captured just half of the youth vote in Ohio, [...]

  16. As Bush Tax Cuts Expire, Obama Second Term Calls for Real Change | Egypt Says:

    [...] the game changer side, Obama easily won the youth vote, 67 to 30%, and the youth vote was decisive in many swing states. Although Obama didn’t directly address millennial voters as much during [...]

  17. Obama succeeds in acquiring “youth vote” | Talking Politics Says:

    [...] had achieved a 50-50 split, he could have flipped those states to his column.” As made clear in this article, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida were states in which young voters were “essential to [...]

  18. Young voters were the key to Obama’s swing state wins — MSNBC Says:

    [...] to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIVIC), the youth vote in those four states was the key to the 2012 race: “Assuming that Florida is [...]

  19. Electoral College Results: How the Youth Vote Cost Romney the Presidential … | The Presidency Says:

    [...] in 2008 vs. 60% and 37% in 2012) it still had a substantial impact on the election. According to a study by The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, the youth vote [...]

  20. Frank Says:

    Is the a breakdown of demographics on the youth vote? Gender and ethnicity? Oddly enough, the people most likely to pay the price for Obamanomics have kept him in office.

  21. What We Learn About Millennials From the Presidential Election Says:

    [...] in four key swing states, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, according to data from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Engagement (CIRCLE). photo credit: Neven Mrgan via photopin [...]

  22. CIRCLE Says:

    Hi Frank –
    Thanks for your comment. We’ll be putting out more detailed analysis of demographic breakdowns (by gender & race, and educational attainment) in the next couple of days. Stay tuned, and please feel free to contact CIRCLE staff with any immediate questions. Thanks!

  23. Robert M. Brandon: Information Critical to Turning Out the Student Vote | Political Ration Says:

    [...] 50 percent (22 to 23 million) turned out to vote, making the difference in several states including Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Now that millenials, with more than 45 million potential voters, are the largest voting bloc in [...]

  24. Early estimates: Kansas sets record low voter turnout rate in 2012 « Jayhawks Decide Says:

    [...] share of the voting population in each state than they did in Kansas. In fact, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, young people decided the election in four swing states. If the youth had not turned out in the [...]

  25. 2012 Millineals Speak! ← Louisiana Family Forum Says:

    [...] in four key swing states, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, according to data from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Engagement (CIRCLE). They voted for “wings” rather than “roots.” Roots are about foundations. Wings [...]

  26. Redefining the Youth Bloc: Giving 16-Year-Olds the Vote - Says:

    [...] As American voters witnessed last week, the Facebook generation’s political punch can’t be taken lightly. With an estimated 23 million young voters coming to the polls, it was the bloc of 21- to 29-year-olds that kept key states Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania from turning red. [...]

  27. Youth Vote Won Re-Election For President | CivicLab Says:

    [...] According to CIRCLE, the youth vote (18-29) was key to the President winning in these key states: [...]

  28. For GOP, Laughter is the Best Medicine | Current Ground Says:

    [...] he could have flipped those critical states in his favor. Don’t take my word for it, check out the Center for Research and Mathy Statistics Beyond my Basic Understanding and bask in the [...]

  29. WWAS…in Politics ~ November 2012 | WWAS Says:

    [...] Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) suggests that 80 of Obama’s electoral votes depended on the support of young voters. If Romney had captured just half of the youth vote in Ohio, [...]

  30. Engage To Change | The Angriest Black Man in America Says:

    [...] Huffington Post published an online article, “Youth Vote Turnout: Exit Polls Show Greater Share Of Electorate Than In 2008,” detailing exactly where America’s youth stood during the 2012 election. Surprisingly, young people ages 18-29 made up 19% of all voters (according to Edison Research) who turned out at the polls. Youth voters 18-29 make up about 21 percent of the voting-eligible population (according to CIRCLE’s analysis of census data). Historically, youth voter turn-out is usually under 40%. President Obama won 60% of this population and Mitt Romney won 36%. President Obama won 66% of the youth vote in his election against McCain; however, both percentages are the highest any democrat has scored in 30 years. In an article posted on politico.com, the declaration was made that the youth vote made the difference for President Obama in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio (according to C.I.R.C.L.E’s analysis). [...]

  31. Week 6: High-Tech Training | EIDT 6501Training & Development Says:

    [...] http://www.civicyouth.org/at-least-80-electoral-votes-depended-on-youth/ [...]

  32. Alex Wirth: Six U.S. Senators Call for Creation of a Presidential Youth Council | Political Ration Says:

    [...] policy makers are starting to hear us. According to the non-partisan CIRCLE at Tufts University young people decided the 2012 election comprising 19 percent of the electorate. Since we showed up I think it is only fair to ask for a [...]

  33. THE TOP 5 NEWS STORIES OF 2012 | I AM THE NEWS Says:

    [...] to 29) turned out in the same numbers as in 2008, in higher proportion than seniors, and may have helped to decide the election in swing states #3  Miami cannibal attack The Miami cannibal attack occurred on May 26, 2012, when Rudy [...]

  34. Post-Election Analysis: What’s Next? | AURoo Says:

    [...] Obama easily won the youth vote,67 to 30 percent – with the youth vote to being decisive in many swing states. Although Obama didn’t directly address the youth as much during this [...]

  35. In the Meanwhile | omphalos oddities Says:

    [...] As American voters witnessed last week, the Facebook generation’s political punch can’t be taken lightly. With an estimated 23 million young voters coming to the polls, it was the bloc of 21- to 29-year-olds that kept key states Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania from turning red. [...]

  36. The Presidential Youth Council and what it could mean…for Amurica « Sleepless But Not In Seattle Says:

    [...] to CIRCLE, a non-partisan research center at Tufts University focused on youth civic engagement, young people were decisive in the 2012 election, comprising 19 percent of the electorate. Yet the Harvard Institute of Politics found in a recent [...]

  37. Bow Ties And Mohawks At CPAC 2013 Show Changing Republican Party Says:

    [...] When Mitt Romney lost the presidential election last November, he was crushed by Barack Obama among young voters, who went for the Democratic candidate 67 percent to 30 percent nationally. [...]

  38. The American Spectator : The Spectacle Blog : They Say They Want a Revolution Says:

    [...] CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) Mitt Romney might have won the election if he had just matched Obama’s youth appeal in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and [...]

  39. Youth turnout: At least 49%, 22-23 million under-30 voted Says:

    [...] changed the presidency, electing Romney as president. To see more on this analysis, please visit: http://www.civicyouth.org/?p=4905. Young people represented 19% of the voters in yesterday’s election, with President Obama winning [...]

  40. Democracy? I Don’t Think So | Almost Activist Waitress Says:

    [...] term, one of only two times that has ever happened). Ohio is a state that, without the youth vote, would likely have gone the other way. According to The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts [...]

  41. Don’t Underestimate the Power of the Youth Vote | Tori Taylor Says:

    [...] Until the Republican Party starts taking the needs of our generation seriously, they’re going to keep losing. At least 49 percent of young Americans showed up at the polls this year. Without the votes of individuals between the ages of 18 and 29, swing states like Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida would have turned from blue to red, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). [...]

  42. Conservatives could have captive audience with young Americans as their mistrust in Obama grows Says:

    [...] or if young voters had stayed home entirely, then Romney would have won instead of Obama,” a report from The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement [...]

  43. Conservatives could have captive audience with young Americans as their … | incorporateacompanyonline.com Says:

    [...] vote, or if young voters had stayed home entirely, then Romney would have won instead of Obama,” a report from The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement [...]

  44. Swirling the Bowl: An Administration Goes Down the Drain - ALIPAC Says:

    [...] [...]

  45. Election Highlights from 2012 - Nonprofit Vote Says:

    [...] lagging in overall numbers, youth participation is becoming a critical factor in deciding elections. 46 million youth were eligible to vote in the November 2012 election, including 16.8 million who [...]

  46. Millennials Stepping Up to Change Washington – and the Future | Kafferlin Strategies Says:

    [...] 2012 was a surprise. Bear with me: About 50% of eligible 18-29 year olds voted in the presidential election – about the same as 2008, which is about 19% of the voting population and translates into about 23 million votes. While that might seem low given “civic duty” and all, it’s still better than previous generations (in 1990s, youth turnout was less than 40%!). Regardless of whose side you are (or were) on, it should be noted that such turnout is what swung the election for President Obama in 2012: if not for the youth vote in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Governor Romney would have won those states and the election. [...]

  47. My Voice: Youth Participation in an Adult-Driven World Says:

    [...] FairVote and The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) do great work studying youth impact, spreading the good word, etc. But ultimately, it is on us, [...]

  48. XL Dissent: “We Are Building A Culture of Resistance” » Rainforest Action Network Blog Says:

    [...] millennials helped elect Obama, and his party’s success relies on their continued support (youth delivered 80 electoral votes for Obama in 2012, enough to swing the election in his favor). Indeed, many core XL Dissent student organizers cast their first votes for Obama in 2012. One [...]

  49. Articles by Keith Lampe » Articles by Keith Lampe | GeoengineeringWatch.org Says:

    [...] millennials helped elect Obama, and his party’s success relies on their continued support (youth delivered 80 electoral votes for Obama in 2012, enough to swing the election in his favor). Indeed, many core XL Dissent student organizers cast their first votes for Obama in 2012. One [...]

  50. Effort Launched To Mobilize Hillary Clinton Campus Armies Says:

    [...] to a CIRCLE study, Mitt Romney would have won the 2012 presidential election if he had secured the youth vote in [...]

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