CIRCLE - A nonpartisan research center studying youth civic engagement and civic education.

Overview

The November 2010 congressional election will be an off-year (non-presidential) election. The most relevant trend is youth voting in previous off-year elections since the voting age was lowered to 18. That trend is shown below.

Regarding turnout in presidential elections, our fact sheet can be downloaded here (PDF). It includes historical trends and a 50-state breakdown. Below is a graph from that report, showing turnout by age since 1972. Youth (18-29) voter turnout rose to 51 percent in 2008, an increase of two percentage points from the 2004 Presidential election.

In the 2008 election, the gap in turnout by educational attainment remained large; young people without college experience were much less likely than those with college experience to vote. Youth without college experience make up about one half of the young adult population. In the 2008 election, 36% of youth without college experience turned out to vote, compared to the 62% with college experience.

* Since 1972, young women have been more likely to vote than young men; in 2008 the voter turnout gap between genders was eight percentage points

* In 2008, 58 percent of African-American youth voted, which is the highest turnout rate of any youth racial/ethnic group since 1972.

Youth Voter Registration

According to 2008 data, young people were significantly more likely to say that the reason they were not registered was because they did not meet registration deadlines, compared to their older counterparts. The number one reason for not registering - among all age groups - was not being interested in elections/politics; older citizens 25 + and 30+ were slightly more likely to respond that this was the reason they were not registered compared to their younger counterparts.

Table 1: Which of the following was the MAIN reason you were not registered? (Eligible Citizens)

	Did Not Meet Registration Deadlines	Did Not Know Where or How to Register	Not Interested in Elections/Politics	My Vote would Not make a Difference	Not Eligible To Vote	Other
18-24	22.2%	6.2%	39.2%	3.7%	7.2%	15.4%
25+	12.8%	3.2%	41.2%	4.2%	8.1%	18.7%

18-29	20.7%	5.6%	39.7%	3.3%	6.9%	16.7%
30+	11.9%	3.0%	41.4%	4.5%	8.4%	18.7%

Source: CIRCLE analysis of Census CPS, November Supplement 2008

Youth Voting Trends: Midterm Elections (Age 18-29)

In 2009 and 2010 statewide elections, youth turnout had been low compared to the 2006 midterm election. For youth age 18-29, turnout was : 15% in the 2010 Massachusetts special election, 19 percent in the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial election and 17 percent in the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial election.

In the 2006 midterm election, turnout among 18-29 year-olds increased for the second major election in a row–up 3 percentage points in 2006 (25 percent) from 2002 (22 percent).

Young adults voted for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in races for the House of Representatives (58 percent vs. 38 percent ), the Senate (60 percent vs. 33 percent ) and governor (55 percent vs. 34 percent ).

In 2006, young people were more likely than adults 30 and older to identify as strictly independents (26 percent vs. 18 percent) and less likely to identify as Republicans (28 percent vs. 35 percent). Compared to 2002, somewhat more young adults are identifying as independents (up 2 points) though slightly fewer identify as Democrats (down 1 point).

The youth voter turnout rate was highest in Minnesota (43 percent), Wisconsin (40 percent), and Montana (49 percent). The states with the lowest turnout were West Virginia (16 percent), Texas and Utah (tied at 17 percent).

The metropolitan areas with the highest turnout in 2006 were the Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St.Paul, 47 percent), Milwaukee (39 percent), and Detroit (38 percent).

Sources: “Young Voters in the 2006 Elections” and “Youth Voter Turnout Increases in 2006“; Quick Facts About Young Voters by State: The Midterm Election Year 2006, ” “Quick Facts About Young Voters by Metropolitan Area: The Midterm Election Year 2006,” and “Young Urban Voters in the Midterm Election Year 2006.”

Voting Laws & Youth Turnout

In 2008, on average, 59% of young Americans whose home state offered EDR voted; nine percentage points higher than those who did not live in EDR states.

Three of the top five states for youth voting in 2008 allowed Election Day registration (MN, IA, NH).

Other state laws that seem to increase youth voting are: early voting at convenient locations, no-excuse absentee voting, and voter registration at state motor vehicle agencies.

In states that mailed sample ballots & information about polling places and extended polling place hours, youth turnout increased by about 10 percentage points.

Our fact sheets on State Election Law Reform and Youth Voter Turnout & State Voting Laws shows which provisions (such as early voting or same-day registration) are in effect in each state and which of these rules is most likely to raise youth turnout.

Sources: “Easier Voting Methods Boost Youth Turnout“; How Postregistration Laws Affect the Turnout of Registrants; State Voting Laws, and State Election Law Reform and Youth Voter Turnout .

Getting Out the Youth Vote: What Works

Personalized and interactive contact counts. The most effective way of getting a new voter is the in-person door knock by a peer; the least effective is an automated phone call. Canvassing costs $11 to $14 per new vote, followed closely by phone banks at $10 to $25 per new vote. Robocalls mobilize so few voters that they cost $275 per new vote. (These costs are figured per vote that would not be cast without the mobilizing effort.)
Begin with the basics. Telling a new voter where to vote, when to vote and how to use the voting machines increases turnout.
The medium is more important than the message. Partisan and nonpartisan, negative and positive messages seem to work about the same. The important factor is the degree to which the contact is personalized.
In ethnic and immigrant communities, start young. Young voters in these communities are easier to reach, are more likely to speak English (cutting down translation costs), and are the most effective messengers within their communities.
Initial mobilization produces repeat voters. If an individual has been motivated to get to the polls once, they are more likely to return. So, getting young people to vote early could be key to raising a new generation of voters.
Leaving young voters off contact lists is a costly mistake. Some campaigns still bypass young voters, but research shows they respond cost-effectively when contacted.

Source: Young Voter Mobilization Tactics

Personally contacting young people on Election Day can significantly increase youth voter turnout, but only if they’ve already expressed interest in voting.

Sources: The Effects of an Election Day Voter Mobilization Campaign Targeting Young Voters by Donald P. Green

Local Political Parties and Youth

About nine-in-ten local party leaders say youth political engagement is a serious problem.

93% of local party leaders feel local parties can make a big difference in getting young people involved in politics.

Only 8% of the party chairs identified young people as the most important demographic for the “long-term success of their party,” compared to 21% who named senior citizens.

Source: Throwing a Better Party: Local Mobilizing Institutions and the Youth Vote

Resources

For more information on youth voting:

Young Voter Mobilization Tactics
The 2004 Youth Vote: A Comprehensive Guide
A voter turnout time series for 1972-2004 (Excel spreadsheet)

Fact sheets:

Research Report:

Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections

Working Papers: