Young voters favor Obama over McCain by 66% to 32%
Conference Call-in Press Briefing to Discuss 2008 Youth Vote, 2 PM ET, Nov. 5
Dial-in number is 877-844-6052 (no access code needed).
Medford/Somerville, MA - Young people (ages 18-29) represented 18 percent of the voters in today’s election, according to the early released National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. This is the one point higher than in 1996, 2000, and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP. However, this number does not indicate how many young people voted or whether there was a rise in youth turnout. In recent elections, the youth share of the vote remained constant, because youth turnout rose at the same rate as the total turnout. See the table below for more information on the difference between turnout and share.
“Voting is not a race between young people and older people,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “Young people have seen a slight increase in their share of the vote in a year of strong turnout. That represents a notable increase in youth engagement.”
Young people represent about 21% of the voting-eligible population, according to analysis of Census data by Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).
Early tomorrow morning, numbers on youth voter turnout will be available. The 2008 youth voter turnout is the only number that represents whether or not there was an increase in youth voting this election. The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers. The youth share (percentage of voters who are young) has stayed steady since 1996 as more people of every age have voted. Youth turnout, on the other hand, has grown consistently, with nearly half of all 18-29 year olds voting in the 2004 election.
| Youth share (percentage of voters who were young) from Edison/Mitofsky National Exit Polls | Youth Turnout (percentage of young citizens who voted), estimated by CIRCLE using exit poll data | |
| 1996 | 17% | 37% |
| 2000 | 17% | 41% |
| 2004 | 17% | 48% |
| 2008 | 18% | To be released Nov. 5 |
There is no official count of voters by age. Therefore, any statistic on youth share or youth voter turnout is an estimate based on survey data. Like any survey, the National Exit Polls use methods that may introduce sampling bias. However, our estimates of youth turnout from the National Exit Polls (shown above) have produced a trend that closely tracks the trend in the Census Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the other reliable source for estimating youth turnout. Since CPS voting data for 2008 will not be available until spring 2009, our method produces the only current and reliable estimate of youth turnout.
Young voters preferred Obama
Young voters diverged sharply from the population as a whole, preferring Obama/Biden over McCain/Palin by 66% to 32% in the NEP. This is by far the highest share of the youth vote obtained by any candidate since exit polls began reporting results by age categories in 1976. In past elections from 1976 through 2004, young voters diverged by an average of only 1.8 percentage points from the popular vote as a whole. 2004 had set the previous record for an age gap.
|
year |
Democratic candidate’s share of the under-30 vote (exit polls) |
Democratic candidate’s share of the popular vote (Federal Election Commission) |
difference |
|
1976 |
51% |
50.0% |
+1.0% |
|
1980 |
44% |
41.0% |
+3.0% |
|
1984 |
40% |
40.4% |
-0.4% |
|
1988 |
47% |
45.5% |
+1.5% |
|
1992 |
43% |
42.9% |
+0.1% |
|
1996 |
53% |
49.2% |
+3.8% |
|
2000 |
48% |
48.3% |
-0.3% |
|
2004 |
54% |
48.1% |
+5.9% |
|
2008 |
66% |
projected to be 52% |
+14% |
Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement
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[…] National Exit Polls Report Youth Represented 18 Percent of Voters This is the one point higher than in 1996, 2000, and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP. However, this number does not indicate how many young people voted or … […]
Early tomorrow morning, numbers on youth voter turnout will be available. The 2008 youth voter turnout is the only number that represents whether or not there was an increase in youth voting this election. The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers. The youth share (percentage of voters who are young) has stayed steady since 1996 as more people of every age have voted. Youth turnout, on the other hand, has grown consistently, with nearly half of all 18-29 year olds voting in the 2004 election. What a numbers. I hope they are correct.
This is a good turnout of the youth voters. At least, our youth has become proactive…realizing that their future lies in the hands of the leaders they are going to choose.
I hope our youth will change, otherwise we are doomed.
Yes, Peter’s comment is really eloquent as well as conspicuous. The grain of raison is quite obvious here, so the measures are indispensable
Looks like the fastest rate of change has been the last four years, the obama effect no doubt
Youth is nation’s hope for future, and they should change for good sake.
Youth are our future and they should participate in things that decide and lead the future of our nation.
Yes, Peter’s comment is really eloquent as well as conspicuous.
No doubt with the result. President Obama was on the lead. People are getting wiser when it comes to voting the right candidate.
The table of numbers on this research is very great, it very useful with my study.
Thank you.
It is no suprise that young people vote favour someone 20 years older than someone 40 years older.
I am suprised the differential was that small in the clinton years
All these talk about youths being apathy about politics is wrong.
Excellent sign that our youths are more involved in politics now.
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I wont be able to see this turnout in my country.
i think new media has a part to play in this youth interest.
The media has a strong influence over the youth of America. I think the youth of America will be fine. They are after all youth. It just takes time just like every generation.
The youth need to be trusted to make their own choices!
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That shows that young people want a new type of leader.
I am impressed that that many of our young people are getting out and voting. Going from less than a 2% deviation to 18% is enormous.
It’s good to know they are voting, but do you think some of them vote for him only because he’s young and he has a trendy wife?
You think that they are voting for him just because of what his wife looks like? I think that’s a little judgmental, but that’s just my opinion.
This is good news for a change. Now if we could just convince the rest of the generations that have started to lose confidence in the government to vote, then we would really be on the right path.
Seriously, I don’t think we can speculate as to the reasons why. They should do some kind of anonymous poll of just the young people as to why they preferred Obama.
Aren’t there already surveys that are done to gather data for why people voted the way they did? I’d think that there is. Will have to do a little searching and will post back if I find anything.
I’m surprised that there isn’t any official numbers of voters by age. I figured they’d want to know statistics like that.
It’s interesting to see such a huge swing in just a few years. I wonder if it can be attributed to the candidates or an overall change in youth ideals.
This is very interesting to see how many young people preferred Obama. Where can we find the CPS voting data that came out in the spring?
It’s good to know they are voting, but do you think some of them vote for him only because he’s young and he has a trendy wife?
Hopefully we will get out of this economic mess. It doesn’t really matter who is president. We need to get out of this disaster
I agree that it is great that the youth are finally being proactive. Hopefully it wasn’t just some cool trend that will quickly fizzle.
I don’t know if voting stats should be released. As it was said, it’s not a race or competition between age groups, genders, etc…
I think, not only free from the economic crisis. but we also need to choose the right president for the future. Finally resolved this problem dapet well. I hope the economic crisis will not happen again. worn from many effects of the economic crisis.
That shows that young people want a new type of leader. - agree
Apparently, young people don’t really understand what they’re voting for. While McCain/Palen weren’t a great choice, they would have better than the catastrophe we have now.
I am very impressed with Obama. in can get the title of president in America. Can we know that there had never been a black man who served as president of the United States. I hope, Obama in resolving problems that occur in this world.
I hope, Obama wll be great
Amazing article. The 2008 youth voter turnout is the only number that represents whether or not there was an increase in youth voting this election. The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers.
Obama was elected President of the United States. I hope, Obama can provide something useful of this earth. and Obama can deliver this Earth from the war.
I wasn’t surprised by these statistics ONE BIT - it’s obvious why Obama was more popular with the younger generation. He could relate to them more, with his own youth. He was also charismatic, witty and well spoken which are attributed the younger generation like especially.
Furthermore, it seems in the U.S the younger generation are more left leaning. I think with these two factors in mind, it’s no wonder why Obama won. The young people made the difference (who I may add, he brought out in huge numbers - younger voters have never voted so much1)
Since Obama was elected the US President I too was hoping Obama can provide something useful for this earth. We need to save the world!
Compromise Agreement’s are not high on obama’s agenda but they will have an effect at some point in the future when he liase’s with Japan
Brilliant comments.
These are really intresting datas. thx
Congratulations on the election of Obama as President of the U.S. and became the first black person to become president in America. I hope, Obama can solve problems in various parts of the world. especially the problem of war is happening right now. Many casualties because of the incessant war.
Very interesting article. Thank you
I am believing in Obama and am sure that he will move even bigger things than he already did.