National Exit Polls Report Youth Represented 18 Percent of Voters
Young voters favor Obama over McCain by 66% to 32%
Conference Call-in Press Briefing to Discuss 2008 Youth Vote, 2 PM ET, Nov. 5
Dial-in number is 877-844-6052 (no access code needed).
Medford/Somerville, MA – Young people (ages 18-29) represented 18 percent of the voters in today’s election, according to the early released National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. This is the one point higher than in 1996, 2000, and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP. However, this number does not indicate how many young people voted or whether there was a rise in youth turnout. In recent elections, the youth share of the vote remained constant, because youth turnout rose at the same rate as the total turnout. See the table below for more information on the difference between turnout and share.
“Voting is not a race between young people and older people,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “Young people have seen a slight increase in their share of the vote in a year of strong turnout. That represents a notable increase in youth engagement.”
Young people represent about 21% of the voting-eligible population, according to analysis of Census data by Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE).
Early tomorrow morning, numbers on youth voter turnout will be available. The 2008 youth voter turnout is the only number that represents whether or not there was an increase in youth voting this election. The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers. The youth share (percentage of voters who are young) has stayed steady since 1996 as more people of every age have voted. Youth turnout, on the other hand, has grown consistently, with nearly half of all 18-29 year olds voting in the 2004 election.
| Youth share (percentage of voters who were young) from Edison/Mitofsky National Exit Polls | Youth Turnout (percentage of young citizens who voted), estimated by CIRCLE using exit poll data | |
| 1996 | 17% | 37% |
| 2000 | 17% | 41% |
| 2004 | 17% | 48% |
| 2008 | 18% | To be released Nov. 5 |
There is no official count of voters by age. Therefore, any statistic on youth share or youth voter turnout is an estimate based on survey data. Like any survey, the National Exit Polls use methods that may introduce sampling bias. However, our estimates of youth turnout from the National Exit Polls (shown above) have produced a trend that closely tracks the trend in the Census Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the other reliable source for estimating youth turnout. Since CPS voting data for 2008 will not be available until spring 2009, our method produces the only current and reliable estimate of youth turnout.
Young voters preferred Obama
Young voters diverged sharply from the population as a whole, preferring Obama/Biden over McCain/Palin by 66% to 32% in the NEP. This is by far the highest share of the youth vote obtained by any candidate since exit polls began reporting results by age categories in 1976. In past elections from 1976 through 2004, young voters diverged by an average of only 1.8 percentage points from the popular vote as a whole. 2004 had set the previous record for an age gap.
| year | Democratic candidate’s share of the under-30 vote (exit polls) | Democratic candidate’s share of the popular vote (Federal Election Commission) | difference |
| 1976 | 51% | 50.0% | +1.0% |
| 1980 | 44% | 41.0% | +3.0% |
| 1984 | 40% | 40.4% | -0.4% |
| 1988 | 47% | 45.5% | +1.5% |
| 1992 | 43% | 42.9% | +0.1% |
| 1996 | 53% | 49.2% | +3.8% |
| 2000 | 48% | 48.3% | -0.3% |
| 2004 | 54% | 48.1% | +5.9% |
| 2008 | 66% | projected to be 52% | +14% |
November 4th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
[...] post by WP-AutoBlog Import var AdBrite_Title_Color = ’0000FF’; var AdBrite_Text_Color = ’000000′; var [...]
November 5th, 2008 at 1:19 am
[...] November on the night of this historic presidential election. Young people supported Barack Obama 68-30% over Senator John McCain. Young people ages 18-29 made up 18% of the electorate this year, slightly [...]
November 5th, 2008 at 11:50 am
[...] people (18-29) represented 18 percent of all voters yesterday, up one percent from 2004. To put this in perspective, young people only make up 21 percent of the [...]
November 5th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
[...] WHY OBAMA WONhttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/11/05/politics/main4572555.shtml The Youth Votehttp://www.civicyouth.org/?p=321 WILL THIS HEAL THE RACIAL DIVIDE?http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1856574,00.html [...]
November 7th, 2008 at 12:37 am
[...] National Exit Polls Report Youth Represented 18 Percent of Voters This is the one point higher than in 1996, 2000, and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP. However, this number does not indicate how many young people voted or … [...]
March 28th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Early tomorrow morning, numbers on youth voter turnout will be available. The 2008 youth voter turnout is the only number that represents whether or not there was an increase in youth voting this election. The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers. The youth share (percentage of voters who are young) has stayed steady since 1996 as more people of every age have voted. Youth turnout, on the other hand, has grown consistently, with nearly half of all 18-29 year olds voting in the 2004 election. What a numbers. I hope they are correct.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
This is a good turnout of the youth voters. At least, our youth has become proactive…realizing that their future lies in the hands of the leaders they are going to choose.
July 12th, 2009 at 12:41 am
I hope our youth will change, otherwise we are doomed.
July 14th, 2009 at 4:52 am
Yes, Peter’s comment is really eloquent as well as conspicuous. The grain of raison is quite obvious here, so the measures are indispensable
August 1st, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Looks like the fastest rate of change has been the last four years, the obama effect no doubt
August 6th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Youth is nation’s hope for future, and they should change for good sake.
August 15th, 2009 at 6:24 am
Youth are our future and they should participate in things that decide and lead the future of our nation.
August 15th, 2009 at 6:25 am
Yes, Peter’s comment is really eloquent as well as conspicuous.
August 18th, 2009 at 1:09 pm
No doubt with the result. President Obama was on the lead. People are getting wiser when it comes to voting the right candidate.
September 4th, 2009 at 2:11 am
The table of numbers on this research is very great, it very useful with my study.
Thank you.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:30 am
It is no suprise that young people vote favour someone 20 years older than someone 40 years older.
September 14th, 2009 at 5:34 am
I am suprised the differential was that small in the clinton years
September 17th, 2009 at 4:51 am
All these talk about youths being apathy about politics is wrong.
September 17th, 2009 at 5:01 am
Excellent sign that our youths are more involved in politics now.
beginner diver
September 17th, 2009 at 10:03 am
I wont be able to see this turnout in my country.
September 17th, 2009 at 10:11 am
i think new media has a part to play in this youth interest.
October 10th, 2009 at 12:55 am
The media has a strong influence over the youth of America. I think the youth of America will be fine. They are after all youth. It just takes time just like every generation.
October 12th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
The youth need to be trusted to make their own choices!
cheap toilets
October 12th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
That shows that young people want a new type of leader.
October 13th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
I am impressed that that many of our young people are getting out and voting. Going from less than a 2% deviation to 18% is enormous.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
It’s good to know they are voting, but do you think some of them vote for him only because he’s young and he has a trendy wife?
October 15th, 2009 at 5:05 pm
You think that they are voting for him just because of what his wife looks like? I think that’s a little judgmental, but that’s just my opinion.
October 16th, 2009 at 12:45 am
This is good news for a change. Now if we could just convince the rest of the generations that have started to lose confidence in the government to vote, then we would really be on the right path.
October 16th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Seriously, I don’t think we can speculate as to the reasons why. They should do some kind of anonymous poll of just the young people as to why they preferred Obama.
October 17th, 2009 at 10:09 am
Aren’t there already surveys that are done to gather data for why people voted the way they did? I’d think that there is. Will have to do a little searching and will post back if I find anything.
October 17th, 2009 at 5:29 pm
I’m surprised that there isn’t any official numbers of voters by age. I figured they’d want to know statistics like that.
October 27th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
It’s interesting to see such a huge swing in just a few years. I wonder if it can be attributed to the candidates or an overall change in youth ideals.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:01 am
This is very interesting to see how many young people preferred Obama. Where can we find the CPS voting data that came out in the spring?
November 19th, 2009 at 4:12 pm
It’s good to know they are voting, but do you think some of them vote for him only because he’s young and he has a trendy wife?
November 24th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Hopefully we will get out of this economic mess. It doesn’t really matter who is president. We need to get out of this disaster
November 24th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
I agree that it is great that the youth are finally being proactive. Hopefully it wasn’t just some cool trend that will quickly fizzle.
December 9th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
I don’t know if voting stats should be released. As it was said, it’s not a race or competition between age groups, genders, etc…
December 11th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
I think, not only free from the economic crisis. but we also need to choose the right president for the future. Finally resolved this problem dapet well. I hope the economic crisis will not happen again. worn from many effects of the economic crisis.
December 19th, 2009 at 8:43 am
That shows that young people want a new type of leader. – agree
December 23rd, 2009 at 1:13 am
Apparently, young people don’t really understand what they’re voting for. While McCain/Palen weren’t a great choice, they would have better than the catastrophe we have now.
January 8th, 2010 at 7:46 am
I am very impressed with Obama. in can get the title of president in America. Can we know that there had never been a black man who served as president of the United States. I hope, Obama in resolving problems that occur in this world.
January 11th, 2010 at 3:42 am
I hope, Obama wll be great
January 14th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Amazing article. The 2008 youth voter turnout is the only number that represents whether or not there was an increase in youth voting this election. The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers.
January 17th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Obama was elected President of the United States. I hope, Obama can provide something useful of this earth. and Obama can deliver this Earth from the war.
January 20th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
I wasn’t surprised by these statistics ONE BIT – it’s obvious why Obama was more popular with the younger generation. He could relate to them more, with his own youth. He was also charismatic, witty and well spoken which are attributed the younger generation like especially.
Furthermore, it seems in the U.S the younger generation are more left leaning. I think with these two factors in mind, it’s no wonder why Obama won. The young people made the difference (who I may add, he brought out in huge numbers – younger voters have never voted so much1)
January 21st, 2010 at 4:48 pm
Since Obama was elected the US President I too was hoping Obama can provide something useful for this earth. We need to save the world!
January 21st, 2010 at 4:49 pm
Compromise Agreement’s are not high on obama’s agenda but they will have an effect at some point in the future when he liase’s with Japan
January 21st, 2010 at 4:49 pm
Brilliant comments.
January 24th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
These are really intresting datas. thx
January 24th, 2010 at 9:31 pm
Congratulations on the election of Obama as President of the U.S. and became the first black person to become president in America. I hope, Obama can solve problems in various parts of the world. especially the problem of war is happening right now. Many casualties because of the incessant war.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:23 am
Very interesting article. Thank you
January 30th, 2010 at 10:27 am
I am believing in Obama and am sure that he will move even bigger things than he already did.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:04 am
The fact that Obama can motivate more youths to vote actually speaks volume for the kind of charisma and chemistry that our current President has.
March 7th, 2010 at 9:34 am
I strongly support Obama, he made a new history of the presidency in america. I hope Obama better than Bush. and I really hope Obama stop the war on this Earth. Because, many victims in the war. including American soldiers.
March 16th, 2010 at 1:16 am
The below chart highlights the difference in the two numbers. The youth share (percentage of voters who are young) has stayed steady since 1996 as more people of every age have voted. Youth turnout, on the other hand, has grown consistently, with nearly half of all 18-29 year olds voting in the 2004 election. What a numbers. I hope they are correct.
March 24th, 2010 at 9:54 pm
unshaved amateur xxx
April 14th, 2010 at 8:03 am
Ask for Obama:
Will we ever see high-speed passenger rail service in the U.S.?
April 24th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
Hey Ann,
ask Obama on other site.
May 11th, 2010 at 3:01 am
Youth are our future and they should participate in things that decide and lead the future of our nation.
May 15th, 2010 at 3:48 am
Thank you for this analysis because I’m student of sociological department and I need such surveys for my diploma. I think I can take this subject for the basis. Keep up your work.
November 12th, 2010 at 5:53 am
[...] encuesta nacional encontró la misma tendencia en el total del voto nacional para representantes a la cámara baja. [...]
December 10th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
I wasn’t surprised by these statistics ONE BIT – it’s obvious why Obama was more popular with the younger generation. He could relate to them more, with his own youth. He was also charismatic, witty and well spoken which are attributed the younger generation like especially.