Researcher

CIRCLE is seeking a Researcher to conduct research, perform data analysis, participate in program evaluations, help with project administration, and help communicate our findings to audiences that include academics, educators, policymakers, and the press. Responsibilities include conducting quantitative research for CIRCLE’s in-house research program; drafting fact sheets, web pages, and other research products for various audiences; participating in research and evaluation projects that may use a mix of methods, including qualitative research and field experiments; and answering queries from the general public, reporters, policy makers and academics.

Basic Requirements:

• Bachelor’s degree.
• Three (3) years of related experience.
• Excellent computer skills and knowledge of at least one statistical package, such as STATA, SASS, or SPSS.
• Strong quantitative research (social science methods) and writing skills required. Familiarity with analyzing large public datasets such as those provided by the US Census.

Preferred Qualifications:

• Master’s degree in a social science field. Knowledge of youth civic engagement programs (such as service-learning, youth media-production, or youth voting) is desirable.

To apply to this position,  send in an application and cover letter by April 13, 2012 via the Tufts page here.

Senior Researcher

CIRCLE is seeking a Senior Researcher to conduct research and to help to lead some of CIRCLE’s research or evaluation projects. The Senior Researcher will be a Tufts University employee and will work in the main CIRCLE office on the Tufts campus in Medford/Somerville, Massachusetts. Responsibilities include:

• serving as a researcher on a range of research projects that may include secondary data-analysis, literature reviews, field experiments, program evaluations and original surveys;
• producing reports, fact sheets and press releases on timely and relevant topics, often in close collaboration with CIRCLE colleagues;
• providing guidance to other CIRCLE staff and students who produce research (quantitative and qualitative);
• contributing to research grant proposals;
• representing CIRCLE at a wide range of events including research conferences, practitioner forums, press events and other public events;
• answering queries from reporters about CIRCLE research.

Although the Senior Researcher position does not come with regular teaching responsibilities, there may be opportunities to teach undergraduate courses on civic engagement and leadership periodically.

Basic Requirements:

• Master’s degree
• Five (5) years of related experience
• Experience with statistical software packages, databases, and Microsoft Office
• Strong research skills, including a good working knowledge of at least one statistical package, such as STATA, SAS, or SPSS, and some experience using large public datasets. Experience with multivariate statistical techniques or qualitative methods and evaluation methods
• Ability to communicate effectively with practitioners, reporters, scholars, and young people through writing, speech, and graphs
• Ability to produce reliable, accurate, and readable evaluations and research products on short deadlines
• Ability to work collaboratively with CIRCLE colleagues from varied backgrounds and to interact with practitioners
• Ability to teach research methods to colleagues and student/workers

Preferred Qualifications:

PhD in a social science discipline. Enthusiasm for youth civic engagement desired; however, prior research in this specific area is not required.

To apply to this position, send in an application and cover letter by April 13, 2012 via the Tufts page here.

Tufts University is an AA/EO employer and actively seeks candidates from diverse backgrounds.

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CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) is a research center that studies young Americans’ civic participation.  CIRCLE is the premier source of information—facts, trends, evaluations, and best practices—related to youth civic engagement.  CIRCLE disseminates the results of research to policy makers, practitioners, journalists, and scholars in various disciplines. CIRCLE is part of The Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service at Tufts University, which prepares students in all fields of study for lifetimes of active citizenship, promotes new knowledge in the field, and builds an enduring and broadly shared ethos of citizenship and public service across Tufts University. Tisch College offers opportunities to engage Tufts students in meaningful community building and public service experiences, explore personal commitments to civic participation, and take on active and effective roles in public life and to engage faculty in expanded active citizenship research and teaching.  Tisch College also seeks to influence higher education in the US and abroad to embrace active citizenship.

MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. – One percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in Nevada participated in Saturday’s Republican caucus, compared to the 2008 caucus, when 5% of eligible young Nevadans participated in the Democratic and Republican caucuses combined, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE).

This year, Rep. Ron Paul won the youth vote in Nevada after also earning the majority in both Iowa and New Hampshire. CIRCLE estimates that only approximately 1,000 young voters supported him in this year’s caucus (see Table 2), while former Gov. Mitt Romney drew slightly less than 1,000 votes from Nevadan caucus-goers under 30. By comparison, more than 15,000 young people participated in the 2008 Nevada Democratic caucuses (see Table 3).

“These very low numbers raise questions about whether Ron Paul can compete in big-state primaries and whether Mitt Romney can draw significant youth support,” said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. “The McCain/Palin campaign performed poorly among young people in 2008, and Mitt Romney has an opportunity to improve, but so far, the primary and caucus turnout rates provide no evidence that he has connected with young people.”

Youth turnout rate and number of youth votes are based on CIRCLE analysis of publicly available information (see Sources below).

* Combines the Democratic and Republican figures. For separate results by party, see Table 3
** Youth turnout statistics from 1996 to 2004 are not available for Nevada caucuses due to lack of available data.
*** 2012 statistics only include the Republican Caucus. In these years, there was no Democratic Caucus, because there was an incumbent president from the Democratic Party that took the nomination.

Source:  The share of Caucus participants is obtained from the 2012 and 2008 Nevada entrance poll conducted by Edison Research. The numbers of votes cast are obtained from NYtimes.com (as of 4:05 a.m. ET, 2/6/2012). The number of votes cast in the 2008 NV caucuses was obtained from CNN.com (2008).  Estimated voter turnout is obtained by taking the estimated number of votes cast by young people and dividing it by the estimated population of the 17-to 29-year-old citizens from the Current Population Survey (2007-2011). See p. 2 for definitions.

Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in the uncontested Democratic primary.

Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held caucuses, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive caucus. Table 3 provides estimates of youth participation in Nevada caucus by party and year.

Definitions

• Youth: For the purpose of this press release and estimation of youth participation in the Nevada Caucus, we define “youth” as citizens who were eligible to participate in caucus on February 4, 2012, as permitted by state election law.
• Number of youth who participated: An estimate of how many youth participated in caucuses or primaries.
• Youth share: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the caucus as a percentage of the number of all people who participated.
• Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in caucuses or cast ballots as a percentage of the total number of young people who were eligible to participate on February 4, 2012.

The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.

To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE’s cutting-edge research on young Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections, please email amy@lunamediagroup.com.

To obtain more extensive information about Nevada‘s young voters and historical voting trends, click here.

MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. – Four percent of eligible Florida voters under the age of 30 participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE), and they voted for former Gov. Mitt Romney ahead of Rep. Ron Paul by a margin of 16 percentage points – even though youth were Romney’s weakest age group and Paul drew almost four times as many young voters as he did in the 2008 primary.

The youth turnout, at 4%, was higher than it had been in 2004, the last time only one party held a contested Florida primary. Recent years in which both the Republicans and the Democrats held competitive races in Florida, 2000 and 2008, youth turned out at a rate of 4% and 13%, respectively.

Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in Florida’s uncontested Democratic primary.

CIRCLE Director Peter Levine noted, “Ron Paul won the youth vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, but he came in second in Florida and third in South Carolina – states with much larger populations. Next up is Nevada, another small state, where fewer than 5,000 young people participated in the Republican caucuses in 2008. It would be possible for a candidate like Paul to win the youth vote in Nevada with a concentrated effort. Mitt Romney drew more young voters in Florida this year than in 2008, but the turnout still raises questions about his appeal to youth.”

Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.  Table 3 provides estimates of youth participation in Florida primary by party and year.

Definitions

• Youth: For the purpose of this press release and estimation of youth participation in the South Carolina Primary, we define “youth” as citizens who were eligible to vote on January 21, 2012, as permitted by state election law.
• Number of youth who participated: An estimate of how many youth participated in caucuses or primaries.
• Youth share: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the primary as a percentage of the number of all people who participated.
• Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in caucuses or cast ballots as a percentage of the total number of young people who were eligible to participate on January 31, 2012.
• The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.

To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE’s cutting-edge research on young Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections, please email amy@lunamediagroup.com.

To obtain more extensive information about South Carolina‘s young voters and historical voting trends, click here

MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. – Eight percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in South Carolina participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Thirty-one percent of these young voters supported Congressman Ron Paul, followed by former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich at 28%, Rick Santorum at 21%, and Mitt Romney at 16%. (See Table 1.)

Paul increased his support among young South Carolina voters more than fivefold since 2008, drawing an extra 13,671 youth votes. (See Table 3). However, compared to Paul’s support in 2012, Barack Obama drew almost three times as many young voters in the 2008 South Carolina Democratic primary and went on to win a majority of the youth vote in that state in the general election.

Total youth turnout doubled compared to the most recent year in which only one party held a competitive primary, 2004, but it fell compared to 2008, when South Carolinians had the opportunity to vote in either a Republican or Democratic competitive primary. Overall youth turnout was higher in 2008 (at 19%) and in 2000 with (11%), but in those years both the Republicans and the Democrats held competitive races in South Carolina. (See Table 2.) In the 2008 primary, an estimated 44,320 young people voted in the Republican primaries. In 2012, about 54,105 young people voted – an 18% increase.

Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic primary.

* Combines the Democratic and Republican figures. For separate results by party, see Table 3
**2004 statistics only include the Democratic Primary. There was no Republican primary in 2004, because President George W. Bush was an incumbent and the GOP nomination.
***2012, 2000, and 1996 statistics only include the Republican primary, either because there was/is no Democratic Primary, because there was an incumbent president from the Democratic Party that took the nomination, or no information is available on youth turnout in the Democratic primary.

Source: The share of primary participants is obtained from the 2012, 2008, and 2004 SC exit poll conducted by Edison Research, and the 2000 and 1996 SC exit poll conducted by Voter News Services. The numbers of votes cast are obtained from the Associated Press as of 7:15 am, Eastern time, 1/22/2012, at 100% reporting. The numbers of votes cast in the past election years were obtained from various sources including the Washington Post archives (1996), Federal Election Commission (2000 and 2004), and CNN.com (2008). Estimated voter turnout is obtained by taking the estimated number of votes cast by young people and dividing it by the estimated population of the 18-to-29-year-old citizens from the Current Population Survey (1995-2011). See p. 2 for definitions.

Paul’s estimated 16,773 young votes makes him the most successful Republican candidate in the South Carolina primary in either 2008 or 2012 in terms of the youth vote, but Barack Obama drew almost 50,000 young votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary in 2008.

Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary. Table 4 provides estimates of youth participation in South Carolina primary by party and year.

Definitions

• Youth: For the purpose of this press release and estimation of youth participation in the South Carolina Primary, we define “youth” as citizens who were eligible to vote on January 21, 2012, as permitted by state election law.
• Number of youth who participated: An estimate of how many youth participated in caucuses or primaries.
• Youth share: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the primary as a percentage of the number of all people who participated.
• Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in caucuses or cast ballots as a percentage of the total number of young people who were eligible to participate on January 21, 2012.
• The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.

To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE’s cutting-edge research on young Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections, please email amy@lunamediagroup.com.

To obtain more extensive information about South Carolina‘s young voters and historical voting trends, click here

In addition, here’s an overview of historical data on the participation of young SC voters:

In 2008, young people played an important role in the South Carolina primary, opting strongly for the eventual winner, Barack Obama. In the 2008 South Carolina primary, the turnout rate for ages 18-29 was 19%. Overall, 31% of all South Carolinians participated in the 2008 primary (Democratic and Republican combined). The last time there was only a competitive Republican primary in South Carolina was 1996, when 4% of young South Carolinians voted.

For more detail on the history of youth voting in South Carolina, please see CIRCLE’s South Carolina research.

In 2008, about 44,000 young South Carolinians participated in the Republican primary (representing just 7% of the state’s young people). Roughly 50,000 young people supported Barack Obama in the 2008 South Carolina primary. Young Republican primary voters in South Carolina chose Governor Mike Huckabee by a eight percentage points over Senator McCain, who received 28% of young votes in the Republican primary. Romney received 12% of young votes (5,300 votes) in the 2008 South Carolina primary, while Paul received 7% (3,100 votes).

Several factors could reduce youth turnout in the South Carolina primary this year:

• CIRCLE’s recently released research has found substantial declines in the youth voter registration rate since 2008 in key states, which could be cyclical, but either way is a ‘warning sign’ for the President. See www.civicyouth.org/?p=3177 for more information.
• Also, there will be no competitive Democratic caucus this year. In 2008, over 60% of young South Carolina primary voters participated on the Democratic side. The last time there was only a competitive Republican primary was 1996, when 25,000 youth in South Carolina participated and made up 9% of primary voters.
• Between 2004 and 2008, young evangelicals shifted from an overwhelmingly Republican constituency to one that gave about one third of their vote nationally to Sen. Barack Obama in the general election. Democrats also made gains in party identification at the expense of Republicans. But the situation may have changed substantially since 2008.
• An advantage: South Carolina is holding an ‘open primary’, meaning that Independent and Democratic young people could participate.

A sample of additional facts:

• In 2012, there are an estimated 711,000 18-to 29-year-old citizens eligible to vote in South Carolina.
• In the 2008 general election, an estimated 52.6% of young people in South Carolina cast a ballot.
• In 2008, an estimated 19% of 18-to-29 year-olds in South Carolina cast a ballot in the 2008 primary (Democratic and Republican combined).
• There were roughly 74,000 youth who participated in the Democratic primary in 2008 and 44,000 youth who participated in the Republican primary.
• In 2008, only 17% of young Republican primary voters identified as Independent.
• 85% of young voters in the 2008 South Carolina Republican primary reported they had at least some college experience. Amongst young SC Republican primary voters 35% were college graduates, which made them more likely to be a college graduate than all Republican primary voters.
• In 2008, 61% of young South Carolina Republican primary voters described themselves as ‘born-again or evangelical Christian’. 56% of young South Carolina Republican primary voters were white and described themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians.
• In the 2008 South Carolina Republican primary, youth were more likely than all voters to say candidate’s positions on issues more important than leadership/personal qualities (59% vs. 51%)

For more information on the political behaviors of young evangelicals through 2008, see CIRCLE’s fact sheet on the subject.

CIRCLE will provide a youth voter turnout estimate for the South Carolina primary on January 22.

Note: “Turnout” means the proportion of eligible citizens who participate. “Turnout” should not be confused with the proportion of South Carolina’s primary voters who are young: that statistic will be reported by the Edison Research “exit polls” on Jan. 21, but it is not a meaningful measure of youth involvement.

Fifteen percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 in New Hampshire participated in last night’s primary, according to preliminary analysis by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Numbers may change slightly as the last 5% of precincts report their votes.

Young voters supported Ron Paul by a margin of 20 22 percentage points (see Table 2) and more than doubled his youth votes since the 2008 New Hampshire primary (See Table 3). Compared to 2008, Mitt Romney drew about as many young voters again in 2012.

“Although young voters did not turn out at a particularly high rate this year, they did have an impact by concentrating their votes for Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), helping him come in second behind former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA),” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “Dr. Paul’s 46% 47% support from 18- to 29-year-olds was the strongest level of support for any candidate by any age group.”

Youth turnout declined from the 2004 New Hampshire primary (See Table 1), and while no two primary years are the same, 2012  is best compared to 2004 because only one party had a competitive race during both years.  In election years in which both Republicans and Democrats held competitive races in New Hampshire, 2000 and 2008, youth turned out to vote at a rate of 28% and 43%, respectively.  However, the total number of young voters in yesterday’s Republican primary, approximately 30,000 29,000, is comparable to is just 4,000 more than the number of young people who voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire primary: 26,000.

Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic primary.

* Combines the Democratic and Republican figures. For separate results by party, see Table 3

**2004 statistics only include the Democratic Primary. There was no Republican Primary in 2004, because President George W. Bush was an incumbent and the GOP nomination.

***2012 and 1996 statistics only include the Republican Primary.  In these years, there was/is no competitive democratic primaries because there was an incumbent president from the Democratic Party that took the nomination.

Source:  The share of Primary  participants is obtained from the 2012, 2008, and 2004 NH  exit poll conducted by Edison Research, and the 2000 and 1996 NH exit poll conducted by Voter News Services.   The numbers of votes cast are obtained from the Associated Press (as of 12:30pm 7:30 am, Eastern time, 1/11/2012.)  The numbers of votes cast in the past election years were obtained from various sources including the Washington Post archives (1996), Federal Election Commission (2000 and 2004), and CNN.com (2008).  Estimated voter turnout is obtained by taking the estimated number of votes cast by young people and dividing it by the estimated population of the 18-to-29-year-old citizens from the Current Population Survey (1995-2011).   See p. 2 for definitions.

Source: National Election Pool New Hampshire Exit Poll 2012

In 2008, 31% of young voters in New Hampshire supported John McCain, who won the primary. Ron Paul had support from 18% of the young voters, and Romney had 23%. Table 3 shows the comparison in terms of the number of young voters who supported the leading candidates.

Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive primary.  Table 4 provides estimates of youth participation in New Hampshire primary by party and year.

To obtain more extensive information about New Hampshire‘s young voters and historical voting trends, click here.

Definitions

Youth: For the purpose of this press release and estimation of youth participation in the New Hampshire primary, we define “youth” as citizens who were eligible to vote on January 10, 2012, as permitted by state election law.

Number of youth who participated: An estimate of how many youth participated in primaries.

Youth share: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the primary as a percentage of the number of all people who participated.

Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in caucuses or cast ballots as a percentage of the total number of young people who were eligible to participate on January 10, 2012.

The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.

Analysis of young New Hampshire primary voters released today by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) shows that young Republican primary voters (18-29) are a highly engaged part of the electorate and could possibly play a deciding role in next Tuesday’s primary.

In every general election since 1998, the turnout percentage for young New Hampshire voters has been higher than the national average. In the 2008 New Hampshire primary, an historic 43% of young voters in the Granite State turned out to cast a vote for either the Republican or Democratic candidates, according to CIRCLE, a leading nonpartisan, academic research center at Tufts University that studies young people in politics.

“Historically, young voters in New Hampshire turn out to vote at a rate that is on par with older voters in the state, which puts their engagement in elections above the national average for youth in every general election since 1998,” said Peter Levine, director of CIRCLE.  “In the 2008 primary, New Hampshire young people turned out at a rate double that of 2004 and undoubtedly played a significant role in John McCain’s eight-point win over Mitt Romney in the Republican primary that year.”

Young Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are poised to play a deciding role in Tuesday’s election, not simply because of their higher-than-average turnout rates, but also because of their ideological make-up. In the 2008 New Hampshire Republican primary, 55% of participants ages 18-29 identified as “Republicans,” but in that same primary election 39% the young Republican primary voters identified themselves as “Independents.”

“Every campaign should pay attention to young voters in New Hampshire,” continued Levine. “Since nearly 40% of young Republican primary voters in ’08 identified themselves as ‘Independents,’ candidates should be aware that many young voters could be Independents again this year. I suspect it was no coincidence that Rick Santorum’s first post-Iowa town hall yesterday in New Hampshire was held on a college campus comprised primarily of young New Hampshire college students.”

CIRCLE will provide a youth voter turnout estimate for the New Hampshire primary on Wednesday, Jan. 11 in addition to detailed information about the history of youth participation in the New Hampshire primaries and in the state’s politics and civil society.

Note: “Turnout” means the proportion of eligible citizens who participate. “Turnout” should not be confused with the proportion of New Hampshire’s primary voters who are young. That statistic will be reported by the Edison Research exit polls on Jan. 10, but it is not a meaningful measure of youth involvement.

BACKGROUND:  Historical Data on the Participation of Young NH Voters

For additional details on the history of youth voting in New Hampshire, please see CIRCLE’s research here.

New Hampshire’s young people are generally engaged in elections (62% of young, NH voters turned out for the November 2008 general election), but several factors could potentially reduce youth turnout in the 2012 New Hampshire primary:

• CIRCLE’s recently released research has found substantial declines in the youth voter registration rate since 2008 in key states. Click here for more information.

• There will be no competitive Democratic primary this year. In 2008, three-fifths of young New Hampshire primary voters participated on the Democratic side. The last time there was only one competitive primary was 2004, when 18% of youth in New Hampshire participated.

• In 2008, about 33,000 young New Hampshirites, 17% of the state’s young people, participated in the Republican primary and helped elect the state’s top candidate, Senator John McCain. More than 51,000 young people cast vote in the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, and 51% (about 26,000) of those young voters supported Barack Obama.

• Of young Republican-identified youth who voted in 2010, 65% considered themselves conservative, versus 31% who said they were moderate. Republican-identified youth were six points more likely to identify as moderates than were Republicans over age 30.

• The Tea Party received support from 61% of young Republican New Hampshire voters in 2010, versus 74% of older Republican voters.

A sample of additional facts available online, here:

●      In 2012, there are an estimated 197,000 18-to 29-year-old citizens eligible to vote in New Hampshire.

●      In the 2008 general election, an estimated 62% of young people in New Hampshire cast a ballot.

●      In 2008, an estimated 43% of 18-to-29 year-olds in New Hampshire cast a ballot in the 2008 primary (Democratic and Republican combined), while an estimated 53% of all citizens cast a ballot.

●      Youth turnout in the 2008 New Hampshire primary (Democratic and Republican combined) more than doubled when compared to 2004.

●      There were roughly 51,000 youth who participated in the Democratic primary in 2008 and 33,000 youth who participated in the Republican primary.

MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. – Four percent of eligible Iowa voters under the age of 30 participated in last night’s presidential caucuses, according to preliminary analysis by The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE). Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) drew the support of 48% of the under-30 caucus-goers, with Rick Santorum coming in second among young people with 23%; Mitt Romney drew just 14% of the young voters (see Table 2).

According to CIRCLE’s estimate, approximately 8,800 young people turned out for Ron Paul in last night’s caucus. In comparison, at least 30,000 young people turned out for Barack Obama in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, contributing to his victory there. Almost twice as many young voters supported Obama in 2008 as supported all the 2012 Republican candidates combined. The 48% support for Rep. Paul was the highest level of support for any candidate among any age group in yesterday’s Caucuses. (Mitt Romney won 33% of the votes of ages 65 and older, the second strongest concentration of support.) Youth represented a typical proportion of all the Iowa Caucus-goers in 2012 at 15%.

“For the second election in a row, youth played an important role in the Iowa Caucuses,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “In 2008, they turned out strong and gave their support to both parties’ Iowa Caucus winners, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee. In 2012, they turned out at a more typical rate but threw such a high proportion of their votes to Ron Paul that he finished close. It is statistically unlikely that the young Paul supporters of 2012 had caucused for Obama in 2008. It is more likely that a different group was mobilized in each year.”

Because of lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do not include young people who participated in yesterday’s uncontested Democratic Caucuses.

The 2012 youth turnout was the same as in 2004 (the last year in which only one party had a competitive race). In the two recent years that had both Republican and Democratic competitive races, the youth turnout was 13% in 2008 and 3% in 2000. See Table 1 below.

**2004 statistics only include the Democratic Caucus. There was no Republican Caucus in 2004, because President George W. Bush was an incumbent and the GOP nomination.
***2012 and 1996 statistics only include the Republican Caucus. In these years, there was/is no Democratic Caucus, because there was an incumbent president from the Democratic Party that took the nomination.

Source: The share of Caucus participants is obtained from the 2012, 2008, and 2004 IA entrance poll conducted by Edison Research, and the 2000 and 1996 IA entrance poll conducted by Voter News Services. The numbers of votes cast are obtained from the Associated Press at 6:20 am Eastern Time on January 4, The numbers of votes cast in the past election years were obtained from various sources including the Washington Post archives (1996), Federal Election Commission (2000 and 2004), and CNN.com (2008). Estimated voter turnout is obtained by taking the estimated number of votes cast by young people and dividing it by the estimated population of the 17-to-29-year-old citizens from the Current Population Survey (1995-2011). See p. 2 for definitions.

Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats held caucuses, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive caucus. Table 3 provides estimates of youth participation in Iowa caucuses by party and year.

Definitions

• Youth: For the purpose of this press release and estimation of youth participation in the Iowa Caucus, we define “youth” as citizens who were eligible to vote on January 3, 2012, as permitted by state election law.
• Number of youth who participated: An estimate of how many youth participated in caucuses or primaries.
• Youth share: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the caucus as a percentage of the number of all people who participated.
• Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in caucuses or cast ballots as a percentage of the total number of young people who were eligible to participate on January 3, 2012.

The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.

To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE’s cutting-edge research on young Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections, please email amy@lunamediagroup.com.

###

CIRCLE (www.civicyouth.org) is a nonpartisan, independent, academic research center that studies young people in politics and presents detailed data on young voters in all 50 states. CIRCLE was founded in 2001 with a generous gift from the Pew Charitable Trusts and is part of the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service at Tufts University. CIRCLE’s reputation for reliable, independent, timely research has been hailed by experts in the field of civic partnership, such as Harvard University professor Robert Putnam who said CIRCLE had brought “the best and most serious research to one place.”

The Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service (http://activecitizen.tufts.edu/ ) is a national leader whose model and research are setting the standard for higher education’s role in civic engagement education. Serving every school of Tufts University, Tisch College creates an enduring culture that prepares students to be lifelong active citizens.

Tufts University (www.tufts.edu ), located on three Massachusetts campuses in Boston, Medford/Somerville and Grafton, and in Talloires, France, is recognized as one of the premier research universities in the United States. Tufts enjoys a global reputation for academic excellence and for the preparation of students as leaders in a wide range of professions. A growing number of innovative teaching and research initiatives span all Tufts campuses, and collaboration among the faculty and students in the undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs across the university’s schools is widely encouraged.

Drop in New, Young Democratic Voters in Nevada & N Carolina “Warning Sign for Barack Obama”

Tufts University, Medford/Somerville, MA – A new, comparative analysis of current voter registration data in the key electoral states of Nevada and North Carolina shows a drastic drop from  2008 levels, when a record-high proportion of young Americans turned out overwhelmingly to cast their votes to elect Barack Obama as President.  The analysis of these two battleground states for which data is publicly available was released today by the nonpartisan, independent Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service.

The analysis by CIRCLE’s team of researchers not only illustrates the Democratic Party’s loss of a significant advantage in youth voter registration over their Republican counterpart, but additionally reveals trends that may signal a widespread decline in youth registration overall – both problematic developments for President Obama’s 2012 re-election effort. Although most states do not retain information about the age and party ID of their electorate over time, both North Carolina and Nevada recently released this comparative data, examined extensively in the report released today by CIRCLE.  Additional data and analysis is available on CIRCLE’s website at: http://www.civicyouth.org/?p=3177.

“The state-specific data for young voters from both of these battleground states shows what can only be described as a profound loss of the registration advantage Democrats held during the 2008 election cycle,” said Peter Levine, Director of CIRCLE.  “That decline is a warning sign for Barack Obama, since more than two-thirds of young voters supported the Obama/Biden ticket in 2008.”

The overview of the analysis released today by Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) shows:

• North Carolina — Between November 2008 and November 2011, North Carolina saw a net gain of 93,709 in the number of overall, new registrations.  However, youth registrants (ages 18-25) lost a net of 48,500 new registrations, while older adults (ages 26 and over) gained over 142,000 registrants. Of the 48,500 net loss in youth registrants, 80.4% were lost among registered Democrats, a net loss of 39,049 young Democratic registrants.

• Nevada — Nevada’s registration rolls have shrunk by a net of 117,109 people since the 2008 election, of whom 50,912 (or 43% of the decline) are between the ages of 18-24.  The significant challenge for Democratic candidates in Nevada in 2012, including the re-election campaign of President Barack Obama, is not the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among Nevada youth, since Democratic young people still outnumber Republican young people on the registration rolls by 45,222 to 25,182. However, the potentially, negative electoral impact for the re-election campaign of President Obama is due to the decline in the youth share of all registrants — youth were 11% of Nevada’s registered voters in  2008 election but just 7.85% in October 2011.  Given the overwhelming support young voters showed President Obama’s 2008 campaign, with nearly two-thirds of young voters casting their ballot for Obama, this drop in the share of the electorate comprised of young voters could prove a major difficulty to the 2012 re-election campaign for President Obama in Nevada.

Levine noted that, “retaining an advantage in registration requires intensive effort, because people of any age may change their party identification between elections, and youth are particularly likely to move to new jurisdictions, requiring them to register anew. Besides that, more than 4 million people reach age 18 every year, while an equivalent number ‘age out’ of the youth cohort.”

To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE’s cutting-edge research on young Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections, please email amy@lunamediagroup.com

To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE’s cutting-edge research on young Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections, please email amy@lunamediagroup.com.

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CIRCLE (www.civicyouth.org) is a nonpartisan, independent, academic research center that studies young people in politics and presents detailed data on young voters in all 50 states. CIRCLE was founded in 2001 with a generous gift from the Pew Charitable Trusts and is part of the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service at Tufts University. CIRCLE’s reputation for reliable, independent, timely research has been hailed by experts in the field of civic partnership, such as Harvard University professor Robert Putnam who said CIRCLE had brought “the best and most serious research to one place.”

The Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service (http://activecitizen.tufts.edu/ ) is a national leader whose model and research are setting the standard for higher education’s role in civic engagement education. Serving every school of Tufts University, Tisch College creates an enduring culture that prepares students to be lifelong active citizens.

Tufts University (www.tufts.edu ), located on three Massachusetts campuses in Boston, Medford/Somerville and Grafton, and in Talloires, France, is recognized as one of the premier research universities in the United States. Tufts enjoys a global reputation for academic excellence and for the preparation of students as leaders in a wide range of professions. A growing number of innovative teaching and research initiatives span all Tufts campuses, and collaboration among the faculty and students in the undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs across the university’s schools is widely encouraged.