Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52% with 23 Million Voters Under 30
3.4 Million More Young People Vote than in 2004
Young Voters Account for at Least 60% of Overall Increase
18% of All Voters Were Young
Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service, Medford, MA – An estimated 23 million young Americans under the age of 30 voted in Tuesday’s presidential election, an increase of 3.4 million compared with 2004, CIRCLE reports, using overall vote count projections by Curtis Gans, director of American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate, latest exit polls, and Census Current Population Survey. This is an update of data released on November 5th by Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), which is the nation’s premier research organization on the civic and political engagement of young Americans.
CIRCLE estimates that youth voter turnout rose to between 52 percent and 53 percent, an increase of 4 to 5 percentage points over CIRCLE’s estimate based on the 2004 exit polls. The 2004 election was a strong one for youth turnout, reversing a long history of decline. If we compare 2008 with 2000, the increase in youth turnout is at least 11 percentage points. This year’s youth turnout rivals or exceeds the youth turnout rate of 52% in 1992, which is the highest turnout rate since 1972 (55.4%).
“Young Americans went to the polls in record numbers, showing they are an influential voting bloc in American politics. This reflects their deep concern about the critical issues at stake and the impact of this election on our country’s future,” said Peter Levine, director of CIRCLE, based at Tuft’s Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service. “We must build on the momentum from this election to motivate all young people to get involved in politics, government and their community. It is also critical that our communities, government and institutions capitalize on this opportunity to engage young people by expanding civic opportunities for young Americans.”
Young voters favored the winner of this election by more than 2-1, forming a major part of the winning coalition. Overall, voters chose Obama over McCain by a much narrower margin of about 53% to 46%. This gap in presidential choice by age is unprecedented. The average age-gap in support for the Democratic candidate from 1976 through 2004 was only 1.8 percentage points, as young voters basically supported the same candidate as older voters in most elections.
Young people (ages 18-29) represented 18 percent of the voters in Tuesday’s election, according to the National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. This is one point higher than in 1996, 2000 and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP.
The increase in youth share and turnout are substantial, especially in contrast to the projection that overall voter turnout will either stay the same or increase by one percentage point. According to CIRCLE’s calculation, the increase in youth votes accounts for at least 60% of the overall increase in the number of votes, suggesting that this year’s election mobilized young people more than any other age groups.
“Turnout” means the percentage of eligible citizens who voted, and youth voter turnout is the percentage of eligible 18-29 year olds who voted. CIRCLE’s final estimate is based on the National Exit Polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky, the overall vote count projected by Curtis Gans, and current Census data on the number of young citizens in the United States. Previously CIRCLE’s estimate has used the number of aggregated ballots cast provided by local election officials. CIRCLE has made this change due to the number of Americans who voted absentee in 2008. CIRCLE’s estimates follow this trend:
| Year | Youth Voter Turnout Estimated by CIRCLE | Percentage point change since previous election | Number of young people who voted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 37% | 14.5 million1 | |
| 2000 | 41% | +4 | 16.2 million1 |
| 2004 | 48% | +7 | 19.4 million1 |
| 2008 | 52-53% | +4-5 | 22.8 - 23.1 million2 |
1 The estimated number of young people who voted in 1996, 2000 and 2004 were calculated using the number of ballots cast in the United States (aggregated from data provided by local election officials) and the youth share of those who voted, as reported by exit polls.
2 The estimated number of young people who voted in 2008 was calculated using a projection of the total number of ballots cast in the United States and the youth share of those who voted, as reported by exit polls.
CIRCLE estimated comparative turnout in states that were heavily campaigned by both candidates (CO, FL, IA, IN, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI), and all other states for youth and all ages combined. According to CIRCLE’s estimation using aggregated counts of votes from each of these states, youth turnout in the heavily campaigned states was especially strong at 59%, compared with 47% for all other states combined. Using the same method, overall turnout in these heavily campaigned states was also high at 69%, compared with 56% for all other states combined. Based on these statistics, it can be inferred that young voters responded to various campaigning efforts in these states by casting their ballots at much higher rates than young people in other states.
CIRCLE also used CNN’s list of seven “battleground” states, which were projected to have close Presidential races (FL, IN, MO, MT, OH, NC and ND). Fifty-two percent of young people in these seven states voted, compared with 50% of youth in all other states. Overall turnout was 60% for these battleground states, compared with 61% for all the non-battleground states combined. The closeness of the race in a state did not seem to affect turnout there.
There is no official count of voters by age. Therefore, any statistic on youth voter turnout is an estimate based on survey data. Like any survey, the National Exit Polls use methods that may introduce sampling bias. However, our estimates of youth turnout from the National Exit Polls (shown above) have produced a trend that closely tracks the trend in the Census Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the other reliable source for estimating youth turnout. CPS voting data for 2008 will not be available until spring 2009. Until then, CIRCLE’s method produces the only reliable estimate of youth turnout.
Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement
[…] Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52% CIRCLE estimates that youth voter turnout rose to between 52 percent and 53 percent, an increase of 4 to 5 percentage points over CIRCLE’s estimate based on the 2004 exit polls. The 2004 election was a strong one for youth turnout, … […]
[…] Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52% Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service, Medford, MA – An estimated 23 million young Americans under the age of 30 voted in Tuesday’s presidential election, an increase of 3.4 million compared with 2004, CIRCLE reports, … […]
[…] Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52% […]
What about the percentage of the overall population that the youth cohort represented in each of these cycles? Correct me if I’m wrong, but all that is measured here is the percentage of all voters that are below 30 years of age. That doesn’t tell us whether that cohort actually turned out in greater percentages compared to prior cycles. For example, in 1972 the cohort under 30 was measuring the huge baby boom cohort. If the 2008 youth cohort is a smaller percentage of the overall population than the boomers were, then their percentage turnout may actually be higher than the boomers in 1972.
[…] 8, 2008 · No Comments Via Future Majority, full article here, the youth vote numbers: Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52% with 23 Million Voters Under […]
[…] Nation — The numbers are in: youth turnout increased by 3.4 million votes over 2004, for a turnout rate of at least 52 percent. […]
The youth now has no inteligence.That is the ONLY reason Obama(aka:liar,Flip-Flopping Terror monger lover)Mark my word,he will bring this into a socialist state .He has already started the lying and BS and he is not even in office yet.
[…] and behold, young voters did turn out in droves. Researchers at Tufts University estimated that 52 percent of eligible youth voted this year, rivaling previous record highs from […]
[…] CIRCLE has updated their youth turnout numbers. You’ll remember that these estimates are based on exit polls and the overall vote count. As absentee and early voting ballots get counted, the totals rise, changing the turnout numbers. CIRCLE now estimates that: […]
[…] FutureMajority: In election 2008, the youth vote increased by 3.4 million voters over 2004. It increased more significantly in states heavily targeted by the campaigns. Youth turnout will likely fall just short of 1972 record. Obama won the youth vote 66-32%. […]
[…] of the creaky, cranky, crotchety 71 year old. Young voters favored Obama by a 2-1 margin. An estimated 23 million young voters overall cast ballots, amounting to 18% of the total tally. Those 18-29 year old voters turned out […]
[…] look at last week’s election. Researchers at Tufts just determined that 23 million young Americans voted this year—a record turnout, and about 3.4 […]
[…] To see the whole CIRCLE youth turnout post, click here. […]
[…] (the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) have estimated the youth turnout (18-29 year olds) in this year’s Presidential election is at least 52% with 23 million voters under 30. This means there was an increase of 3.4 million […]
[…] November 4, 23 million young people came out to vote–the largest number since 1972 and 3.4 million larger than in 2004. But what […]
[…] Circle ← Obama’s Inauguration speech via Allicia Tek, 21 January 2009 10:04am | […]
Nice results! I maen so impessive i didn’t expect such turn of events! this table is really loudly speaking
yes, looks really much impressive, I believed that the popularity of social life is rising among the youth during last some 10 years, but didn’t thought that thi shas so vivid rate! well done!
yes, thanx God people are becoming more conscious about their roles in the society and begin acting like real citizens, it’s so nice to learn about these changes for the better! thanx for the job you’ve done!
[…] Youth Vote: Discussion of the increase in young voters in 2009 […]
Young people (ages 18-29) represented 18 percent of the voters in Tuesday’s election, according to the National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. This is one point higher than in 1996, 2000 and 2004, when young voters represented 17 percent of voters in each presidential election, according to the NEP. I think that this is great
CIRCLE also used CNN’s list of seven “battleground” states, which were projected to have close Presidential races (FL, IN, MO, MT, OH, NC and ND). Fifty-two percent of young people in these seven states voted, compared with 50% of youth in all other states. Overall turnout was 60% for these battleground states, compared with 61% for all the non-battleground states combined. The closeness of the race in a state did not seem to affect turnout there.
[…] people under age 25. I mean, it was a sizable chunk of us (under 25) that handed the party of Fox their own arse on a silver platter in the general election. I’m pretty sure that Eminem was unfazed when he heard this, in fact he probably found it […]
As far as I can see not many young people care about politics nowadays.
Yup, it seems to me that there are really not enough people caring about this stuff.
We have to change our world and the way we live in order to save America.
I agree, we have to do something. Alen
Not only do they not care about politics. They also dont know anything about politics.
Well folks, I think that each research will come up with an interesting conclusion.
It’s interesting to look at articles such as these now with some advantage of time having passed. I think much of the passion that got the younger voters to actually get to the polls is still there, but I wonder how much has been lost?
In an “off year” election (non-Presidential) all of the poll numbers go way down, but it will be interesting to see the trend for this group…
In 04′ the 18-29 age group made up 17 percent of the vote. 54% voted for Kerry and 45% voted for Bush.
In 08′ the youth vote only increased by 1 percent from 04′. What made the big different is that Obama got 66 percent of the vote, while McCain only received 32 percent.
The Democratic candidate widening the gap by 12 percent is what is most notable about the youth vote in 08′. Not the small increase in the number of young voters.
source: cnn.com
Those are nice figures. It is a good indication that our young ones are becoming proactive in trying to shape the future of the country.
Well well folks, what do we have here?
As what has been said since time immemorial, the youth is the future of our nation. It is elating to know that the youth has been actively trying to contribute to a vital exercise like an election.
With these results, it can be gleaned that the youth is becoming proactive. At least, they’re becoming more aware that their future partly lies in the hands of the leaders they are going to choose.
I really like to see that great numbers!
it is good to hear that young people really cares about politics nowadays
This is a good trend. I hope it stays that way for every election in the future. The youth should prove that they are a force to be reckoned with comes election season.
I really don’t see whats the relevancy between this young folks and politics. By the looks of it, they should be better off playing baseball or something
52$ is a very high rate.
its a good sign people specially youth aer more interested and care about politics
That’s very informative.
It’s nice to see younger people exercising their right to vote, but at the same time, it kind of scares me that people with little to no knowledge of politics are entitled this power.
-Jack
3.4 Million More Young People Vote than in 2004. This number is out of date now, can you update it?
This is a great and interesting article.
Interesting research about youth engagement thank you.
These are surprising figures of youth voters. I always believe that our youth is the backbone of our nations. At least they are becoming involved dynamically in trying to mold the future of our nation.
Its great to see young generation’s interest in politics.
I hope it stays that way for every election in the future. The youth should prove that they are a force to be reckoned with comes election season.
Some strategists suggest that Republican campaigns put less emphasis on appealing to young voters because they are a smaller component of the primary electorate.
In the general election, where the large number of unaffiliated young voters may be up for grabs, there will likely be a greater Republican push for their votes.
Everyone in politics has been rejecting youth voters for 10 years. Well now they’ve grown up and Hillary has done the same political scheming that everyone has been banking on. Only this time, the youth are matching and sometimes outstripping the granny vote. She got outflanked and is pulling every trick in the book to win. Crying, seating delegates from uncontested states, playing the victim card, crying again, and LOANING herself 5 million, claiming she’s the underdog with 100% name recognition and 35 years of saving babies lives and walking old ladies across the street and saving women from evil men. I don’t buy this lying garbage.
I think it sad to think we get excited about a turnout rate of 50% and think that is improvement. Why people don’t take a more active role in government by voting still astounds me. Yet everyone complains afterward, whether they voted or not. I’ll jump for joy when I see 75% plus turnout.
Great aricle
I am glad to see youth taking more interest! Young blood can change whole country if they work together in unity.
Cheers.
Thanks! Nice post
Good news !
It’s good news! Thanks for info
I like very much your post. Thanks for sharing the different thoughts.
Very cool blog you got going here please keep up the good work.
Rising rate of youth very good news, obvious it become high when youth participates.
Youth participation always be beneficial.
This is really encouraging that the youth is increasing their participation in voting, definitely think internet per pressure from social networks is helping to remind and get them out.
Research about the Youth Civic engagement and Civic education is really good and based on the facts and figures. Thanks for sharing it here.
In 04′ the 18-29 age group made up 17 percent of the vote. 54% voted for Kerry and 45% voted for Bush.
In 08′ the youth vote only increased by 1 percent from 04′. What made the big different is that Obama got 66 percent of the vote, while McCain only received 32 percent.
The Democratic candidate widening the gap by 12 percent is what is most notable about the youth vote in 08′. Not the small increase in the number of young voters.
source: cnn.com
Very detailed and thought out article…thanks!
In the general election, where the large number of unaffiliated young voters may be up for grabs, there will likely be a greater Republican push for their votes.
Some strategists suggest that Republican campaigns put less emphasis on appealing to young voters because they are a smaller component of the primary electorate.
Young people (ages 18-29) represented 18 percent of the voters in Tuesday’s election, according to the National Exit Polls (NEP) conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. These are surprising figures of youth voters.
I always believe that our youth is the backbone of our nations. At least they are becoming involved dynamically in trying to mold the future of our nation.
Great topic discussion here, this is good to see.
It’s nice to see the youth getting out to the polls
I hope this research will bring more youth engagement in the growth factors. Thanks
Not only do they not care about politics. They also dont know anything about politics, its a good sign people specially youth are more interested and care about politics.
looks really much impressive, I believed that the popularity of social life is rising among the youth during last some 10 years, but didn’t thought that thi shas so vivid rate!
At least they are becoming involved dynamically in trying to mold the future of our nation.
Its definitely a positive move, keep up the good work.
I think the figures gave a lot of clarity on what is the real situation happening. Hopefully, they can shed some light on the possible solution as well.
Thanks for the great article. I will definitely wait for other great ones to appear in the nearest future.
That is great. I think the youth are finally realising the importance in being involved in choosing who will be your nation’s leader because that will ultimately impact on their lives as well
claiming she’s the underdog with 100% name recognition and 35 years of saving babies lives and walking old ladies across the street and saving women from evil men. I don’t buy this lying garbage.
Really like way do you think
That’s very useful!
Its a very interesting article!
Well folks, I think you should do something about these comments. I think you should implement some measures to prevent this behavior.
Yes that is interesting article, thank!
Yes really amazing and fine article impressive
Very detailed and thought out article…thanks!
Nice article and I love what your website does
52% of under 30s voted im very surprised with them statistics.
Good job! THANKS! You guys do a great blog, and have some great contents. Keep up the good work.
best regards,
Very detailed and thought out article…thanks!
Terrific article. Keep the great content coming.
Yes that is interesting article, thank!
Awesome nice vector
Thats the cool’s themes i have see in a long time.
Very nice
Nice article and I love what your website does
Thanks for interesting post! Thats the cool’s themes i have see in a long time.
Youth voter turnout is certainly an interesting topic.
The bigger issue here, IMO, is youth voter education.
If young people aren’t educated on the issues, candidates, and history of the US, what will keep the youth voter turnout from becoming a popularity vote.
I do agree that we need more people voting…but we also need to put a greater focus on youth voter education!
Great article though.
Good job! THANKS! You guys do a great blog, and have some great contents. Keep up the good work. best regards,
Good job.
What else can i say.
there is no doubt, the young adult now a days are so eager to participate in politics which is this is healthy in a democratic country like ours.
ere is no doubt, the young adult now a days are so eager to participate in politics which is this is healthy in a democratic country like ours.
Youth voter turnout is certainly an interesting topic.
The bigger issue here, IMO, is youth voter education.
If young people aren’t educated on the issues, candidates, and history of the US, what will keep the youth voter turnout from becoming a popularity vote.
I do agree that we need more people voting…but we also need to put a greater focus on youth voter education!
Great article though.
Good job! THANKS! You guys do a great blog, and have some great contents. Keep up the good work.
best regards,
Very detailed and thought out article…thanks!
I really love that blog. Your articles are always very helpful. I really appreciate your work.
Regards
Alexander
The youth should prove that they are a force to be reckoned with comes election season.
No comment but why they are studying this?
Nowadays young people do not care about politics.
“Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52% with 23 Million Voters Under 30″.
From line above I don’t know it will be good or bad but youth is the future of nation and let them vote is great.